The tumultuous state of the PGA Tour has created an fascinating narrative with regards to the “common” occasions on the schedule. Only a few of the elite subject at Riviera will take the cruise route from Pacific Palisades all the way down to Puerta Vallarta for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. Because of this, the 132-man field will only have three of the top 40 in the OWGR. Three straight weeks of well-liked venues and/or signature purses goes to take a toll.
I imagine this can make the Mexico Open extra aggressive within the coming years. Center-tier gamers who haven’t performed since mid-January are actually incentivized to play in these common occasions. Having access to the smaller fields and larger purses will solely occur via nice play at occasions like Vidanta. Whether or not it’s an supposed consequence or not, the PGA Tour has impressed the underside of the betting board to play higher!
Hector Vivas/Getty Photos
The Tour took maintain of the Mexico Open three years in the past and thus far we haven’t seen very many stars go south of the border. The par-71 course at Vidanta Vallarta—designed by Greg Norman—stretches practically 7,500 yards. Take a look at their distinctive scorecard:
- 4 par-5s with a mean size of 593 yards.
- 5 par-3s with a mean size of 195 yards.
- 9 par-4s with a mean size of 457 yards.
Augusta Nationwide Golf Membership is among the few programs with a mean par-4 size over Vidanta Vallarta. Size is an unbelievable benefit and one the earlier two teams of top-10 finishers have taken benefit of, averaging over three strokes gained in opposition to the sphere off the tee. Simply contemplate the 2 winners: Jon Rahm and Tony Finau, two nice trendy drivers of the golf ball. These two winners gained a mean of five-plus strokes with the driving force.
The highest 65 and ties play the weekend and fortunately, the climate is resort-esque. No rain is within the forecast and temperatures will attain the mid-80s every day. The wind all the time appears to whip up off the water within the afternoon alongside the Mexican shoreline. I discussed the 2 high 10s earlier, half of these leaderboards have been the precise gamers in each years. That degree of consistency by sure opponents offers us a ravishing blueprint of what it takes to win.
Size is precedence No. 1, adopted by long-iron approaches. Vidanta Vallarta throws a Tour-leading 40% of the method photographs from 200 yards or extra. Another excuse why ball pace is so necessary. Over 60% of the approaches are despatched in from over 175 yards. These 24 gamers who completed contained in the final two high 10s gained and common of 4 strokes on the sphere with their iron recreation and solely 4 of the 24 gave again method strokes.
Norman’s design is difficult on the greens. Gamers make lower than the Tour common for all putts larger than 5 toes in size. Strokes-gained placing is subsequently an important space the place those self same high 10s distanced themselves from all the subject. The 7,000-square-foot surfaces are lined in sticky seaside paspalum, a grass that’s used on most island and coastal programs. Sure gamers find it irresistible, whereas others wrestle. It’s slower than the common PGA Tour inexperienced pace and tends to assist those that have placing “points.”
Contenders will want 24 birdies or extra to win and that’s simply another reason why placing performs a such important function. There’s $8.1 million within the purse and helpful FedEx Cup factors to the contenders. If you wish to play within the signature occasions, you higher present up and grind it out in these common tournaments. The Mexico Open will award $1.46 million for first, however much more necessary it is going to reward the winner with improved signature standing.
Win: Maverick McNealy
I walked 18 holes with Maverick McNealy out in Scottsdale. I wished to see if he may considerably enhance his iron recreation. He’s an elite putter and for much longer off the tee than folks give him credit score for. McNealy gained three strokes on method and completed sixth. Mav already scores on par-5s and along with his brief recreation can save par (and rating) from shut vary. He’s performed very properly on driver-heavy programs earlier than and has the expertise to win with this energy of subject. Take Maverick McNealy to win the Mexico Open (+4500 SI Sportsbook).
Final week’s consequence: Misplaced. Ludvig Aberg completed T19 on the Genesis, respectable however not the “W” we wished.
Yr-to-date: 0–7, -7.00 models
Place: Nicolai Hojgaard
I don’t imagine Nicolai Hojgaard can win however he’ll come shut. Hojgaard’s driving is prolific and his placing is high 20 within the subject. He’s a top-10 par-4 man and top-20 tee-to-green. He matches the blueprint for Vidanta Vallarta apart from one element: Nicolai’s wedges are significantly better than his long-iron recreation. His all-around ability set is shut this week, however in the long run these 200+ yard approaches will add up and solely enable him to contend. Take Nicolai Hojgaard to complete Prime 10 (+200 SI Sportsbook).
Final week’s consequence: Misplaced. Scottie Scheffler was guess for a high 5 however completed T10 behind another very rough week on the greens.
Yr-to-date: 2–5, -2.32 models
Showdown: Michael Kim over Austin Eckroat
Michael Kim and Austin Eckroat are very evenly matched this week. Each are above-average drivers and putters. Kim is significantly better on method, manufacturing extra reasonable birdie probabilities along with his iron recreation and thus scoring higher. Second within the subject for birdie-or-better proportion, over 72 holes I like Kim to complete forward of Eckroat in a event matchup. Take Michael Kim over Austin Eckroat head-to-head (-110 DraftKings).
Final week’s consequence: Misplaced. Collin Morikawa was nipped by Max Homa by one shot at Riviera.
Yr-to-date: 3–3, -0.30 models
Read The Line is the main golf betting insights service led by 5-time award profitable PGA Skilled Keith Stewart. Learn The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, elevating your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Learn The Line’s weekly e-newsletter and comply with us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Tony Finau +700
Nicolai Hojgaard +1400
Emiliano Grillo +2200
Keith Mitchell +2200
Stephan Jaeger +2200
Taylor Pendrith +2500
Thomas Detry +2500
Thorbjorn Olesen +2800
Patrick Rodgers +3000
Davis Thompson +3300
Erik van Rooyen +3300
Brandon Wu +3500
Ryan Fox +3500
Jake Knapp +4000
Doug Ghim +4500
Mackenzie Hughes +4500
Mark Hubbard +4500
Maverick McNealy +4500
Ryo Hisatsune +4500
Aaron Rai +5000
Sam Stevens +5000
