Victor Wembanyama is the frontrunner for the NBA Rookie of the Year award, surpassing even the highest expectations. With the likes of Tim Duncan and David Robinson as previous No. 1 picks for the San Antonio Spurs, Wembanyama is following in their footsteps with an impressive rookie season.
Prior to the start of the season, Wembanyama was favored at -161 to win the award. After 49 games, he has now become a -800 favorite. His only competition is Chet Holmgren from the Oklahoma City Thunder (+450), who has seen more success with his team but doesn’t match up statistically.
The race for Rookie of the Year has narrowed down to Wembanyama and Holmgren, with Charlotte Hornets’ Brandon Miller (+10000) making some noise of his own. However, it seems unlikely that anyone will be able to challenge Wembanyama at this point.
Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports
Despite the struggles of the San Antonio Spurs, who currently hold the worst record in the Western Conference with 11 wins and 44 losses, Wembanyama has excelled individually. The team’s poor performance could give them a high draft pick once again.
Only seven players have ever averaged a 20-point double-double as rookies, with five of them, including Robinson and Duncan, winning Rookie of the Year. The most recent player to achieve this feat was Blake Griffin, with no other player doing so in the 2000s. Wembanyama is also on track to lead the league in blocks as a first-year player. He has only missed six games so far, making him eligible for postseason awards.
In any other year, Holmgren would have a strong case for Rookie of the Year. He is averaging 16.7 points, shooting 54% from the field, 39% from beyond the arc, and 77% from the free-throw line. He also contributes 7.6 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game. Holmgren is a crucial part of the Thunder’s strong defense and has yet to miss a game.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, with a record of 37 wins and 17 losses, are currently 1.5 games behind the top seed in the Western Conference. They are on track to win 50 games for the first time since the 2015-16 season. The arrival of Holmgren, who missed the previous season due to injury, has played a significant role in the team’s improvement, particularly on defense.
Wembanyama and Holmgren have faced off twice already. Although Oklahoma City won both games convincingly, the battles between the two seven-foot rookies were captivating. Their first matchup in November saw Wembanyama with eight points on 4-15 shooting and 14 rebounds, while Holmgren had nine points on 3-10 shooting and seven rebounds. In January, Wembanyama scored 24 points, grabbed 12 rebounds, and blocked four shots, while Holmgren had 17 points, nine rebounds, and three blocks.
It has been a while since a center won the Rookie of the Year award, with Karl-Anthony Towns being the last player to accomplish this feat in 2016. Before him, Emeka Okafor did it in 2005. Now, the top two contenders for the award are both big men, making it an intriguing battle among first-year players.
2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds
Victor Wembanyama -800
Chet Holmgren +450
Brandon Miller +10000
Jaime Jaquez Jr. +25000
Scoot Henderson +25000
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